Will the Real Risk Please Stand Up?

In a world of flux, frameworks are diagnostic and post facto. Useful mental models but are hardly cut out for the world of turbulence with full of air pockets such as pandemics, tariffs, erasure of ESG, geopolitics stemming from wars, AI, dilution of democratic values. Where is the anticipatory work which harvests weak signals which leak through the noise.

ESG frameworks are diagnostic, and don’t capture forward looking risk, and are Eurocentric in nature which hardly accounts for the machinations of the frontier markets.

Will the real risk please stand up?

Global City- Singapore Poll Campaign Rallies Day One

The Tiny Red Dot goes to polls. The rallies after a decade are refreshing, as candidates in the hyper amplified era of the digital speak to actual voters. I attended rallies in both 2011 and 2015, while the last one was the pandemic poll, and a remote experience.

PM Lawrence spoke about the PAP way in the Marseling rally with Pak Zaqy, who spoke in Malay regarding the issues of the Malay community.

Punjabi Harpreet spoke in Hokkien, Arab Alia spoke in Malay regarding the Palestinian conflict to Pritam who spoke with passion about the Hougang spirit. Chinese speech by Alexis was pro mode, and it helps being photogenic in the era of reels. Another WP candidate spoke in Cantonese. The dialects survive in the Nanyang.

The SDP sounded like an academic event apart from Ariffin speaking in Tamil quoting a Bharthiar poem. SPP tried to put on a presence as well.

The slate of opposition candidates is solid, and gives the Singaporean electorate options with a super majority PAP government orready a foregone conclusion.

The first day of rallies gives a good idea of the momentum until Labour Day.

Climate Adaptation is a Social Process- Case of a Mangrove Park in Mumbai

Public Spaces are rare in Mumbai, are a previous leveller for citizens who wish to walk and exercise, young couples to snatch an odd moment of intimacy in an atrociously pricey city as well as for home makers to catch up on gossip calls back to the maika while walking.

The argumentative Indian is on display as there is a constant chatter of sociopolitical commentary while people engage in loud discussions.

Mangroves are natural climate adaptation mechanisms and am grateful for this particular one in my vicinity.

Climate adaptation is often not seen as social spaces of dialogue, as GHG Scope 3 emissions do not capture the social cost of carbon. This is where carbon markets fail to animate the public imagination, as if the capital markets are greatly enthusiastic.

Mumbai has a robust climate adaptation plan and has integrated disaster management into the equation. Mumbai needs to gear up for a heavy monsoon this year after a warm summer and a non winter.

Singapore GE 2025 Known Aspirants

After years of being a good Singapore- phile following the tiny red dot for two decades, and having researched and studied there for a good part of decade, I can see three people whom I have been fortunate to meet, speak and follow make an entry into the mainstream of electoral politics for this #GE2025 , Prof Elmie from my researcher days at NUS CNM, Cai from my migrant work days and Harish from when i was doing engineering at NUS! All three of them are the wonderful minds and compassionate people.

This will be my third election that I would be following, having covered the last election for the Indian media as well.

Eid Meet Up

Always good to meet folks who are the future of the sustainability profession in India. Taufiq started his career with me as an intern and happy to have tracked his amazing developments in the sustainability in the supply chain space. He has interests in air quality and climate risk domain having published research papers at his young age. And the best part, always willing to reach out learn.

Glad to have met him to convey my Eid Greetings in the month of Syawal over Arabic fare in Mumbai.

Bombay in Pictures- March/April 2025

The last month through Bombay has been fantastic from Ghatkopar to Juhu, from Fort to Versova. This city has many sides to it. Such a tremendous joy to travel within, as Bombay has many cities as fractals in it. A city of opportunities, a melting pot. Bombay also is a hard place, for each cafe chat is peppered with deals, upcoming opportunities for the struggling actor and the threat of the outsider, always looming to dislodge the incumbent.

A city which welcomes a SRK and a Kartik Aryan, as well as gives space to a Vicky Kaushal.

Reading Zanzibar

Growing up in Muscat, the presence of the Al Barwani’s, Al Rawahy’s and Al Kindi’s were pronounced who spoke Swahili with many Omani’s of Zanzibari descent, given the Omani Maritime presence until 1964, when violence drove Omanis and Banian’s to find new homes back in Muscat, Dubai, Bombay, Portsmouth.

These wonderful transnational histories have been brought to the fore by books by Nathaniel Matthews and Anne K Bang.

Bahari

This book is a powerful work of cultural archiving by British Omani-Zanzibari author and chef Dina Macki which is equal parts Omani food history and culture.

I have been following the authors work for years and this book was a trip back home as an Al Khuwair boy, who grew up next to the Al Maha Petrol Pump and ate Shwarma’s in Istanboly.

Looking forward to the fare in Mutrah later this year.

Consulting Disruption: Adapting in the AI Era

The HBR article by Prof Clayton Christensen on Consulting Disruption came out in 2013. It was way before any AI wave. The writing was on the wall then. With USD 50 subscriptions to ChatGPT Pro, entire sustainability reports are being written. This situation is a clear warning for lazy consulting work. Such work does not warrant an expense.

Consulting, of all typologies, was never about reports, it was about solving a problem. Clients never paid for EIAs or ESGDDs. They paid for ticking off the requirements for conditions precedent on a loan tranche. It could also be for a construction permit. The shift from risk management and compliance to value creation is never more urgent.

Entry-level analysts will face challenges. Consultants need to add technical expertise. This need is evident from expert hires at the MBB strata too. Cost arbitrage which India and the Philippines brought in for its English prowess is nullified by Grammarly Pro. The Client with a lean ESG Manager with a college intern with LLM can fill up all ESG compliances such as BRSR and CDP.

The knowledge provider ecosystem includes consultancies, law firms, university think tanks, and research institutes. They vie with information providers for the same target audience. The client has plenty of options unless there is a critical reputational capital risk at hand.

Consulting firms will shrink unless the focus is on value creation through implementation support and getting back to the ‘jobs to be done’ focus.

The key question for fellow consultants is:

What are we doing which LLMs cannot do?

Or

What internal teams can suffice as they have domain expertise?

Professional Service Firms that do statutory compliances will sustain. This is especially true in the regulatory sphere such as Assurance. However, tech will encroach there as well. There will be a nudge towards process reforms such as self-verification.

Expertise and Trust are non-negotiable, as Private Banking and FinTech have their respective clientele.

Bombay Islam.

Couple of evenings back i took an uber to the bustle of Bhendi Bazaar, as I walked between Saifi Masjid in Bohra Mohalla to Minara Masjid on Mohammad Ali Road, in the post Maghrib prayers to the Tarawih, the bustle of a Muslim Bombay overwhelms the senses with the sounds and food sights. Bombay as a melting pot was on display as the wealthy Bohra’s had impeccable facilities to the Sunni Masjids down the road which were more earthy.

Different Gujarati Muslim mercantile communities have long made these mohallas home, on the way to East Africa and Aden/ Basra where long duree communities still come over to Bombay for the Jamaat Khana’s in particular the Bohra’s, Khoja’s and Ismailis.

I saw a Shiva Sena poster in the Bohra Mohalla, proclaiming Ramadan wishes, as i am not surprised as the Bohra community has a fondness for the Prime Minister who has often hugged the community members in his forays from New York to Cairo. My uber driver, a Bhendi Bazaar Native and a Muslim Gujarati from Palanpur, quipped about the closeness.

The sweets at Tawakkal were amazing as were the kebabs in front of Minara Masjid. Abaya stores brought me back to the Gulf, especially the souks that are near the old ports such as Bur Dubai or Mutrah/Ruwi.

The Ramadan stalls reminded of Pasar Ramadan’s in Malaysia and Singapore, where the spirit of community over a food plate of Iftar/ Buka Puasa fare unite friends and families. The Ummah unites over faith during the sacred month of Ramadan.